Even at the mention of Russia over the past year, a certain name to springs to mind. The bastion of opposition and anti-corruption, synonymous with quirky viral videos exposing the very worst of Russian corruption. Daring, intelligent and passionate - of course I am referring to Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny.

Some have called for the Nobel peace prize, yet as we speak, he resides in a Russian jail cell on phony charges.  I hope to shed light on whether his recent escapades have consolidated Putin’s control or placed him precariously at the precipice of downfall.

Last summer, Navalny found himself in a rather unfortunate position; 35,000 feet above the Russian tundra fighting for his life. As it later transpired, no thanks to Russian health authorities, Navalny was wearing Novichok laced underwear.

This nerve agent, made infamous by the Salisbury poisoning of 2018, may as well be Putin’s fingerprint at a crime scene. It was evident that Navalny had upset the Russian leader with his exposés of the deep running corruption in the upper echelons of Russian society.

Putin subsists on top of a never ending ‘quid pro quo’ between Russian’s wealthiest billionaires (those with monopolies on utilities such as oil, gas, and telecom systems) and the highest level of Russian government. This precarious house of cards relies on the public’s ignorance or, more often than not, apathy towards the blatant corruption that keeps the rich richer and the rest left wanting. Unfortunately for Putin, Navalny had made it his life mission to show the Russian people why they should care.

Navalny is the founder of the “Anti-Corruption foundation” and leader of the “Russia of the future party”, but also has over 6 million YouTube subscribers and 2 million Twitter followers – figures which illustrate his threatening popularity. Thus, it is no surprise that some have called him “the man Vladimir Putin fears the most”.

The assassination attempt is the natural consequence of probing one of the most ruthless democratic dictators in the modern world.

Yet Russia’s upper echelons are inherently unstable. Putin walks a fine line between pleasing the very few rich and powerful but also being constantly wary of those just below him in government who have their own agendas. This battle on two fronts places Putin in a tug of war between deregulation to please the Oligarchy but maintaining a tight grip over internal affairs.

It is unsurprising then that he has been seen frequently to swat away those who try to disturb his delicate regime and this technique has been highly successful in the past. He has managed to quell any meaningful opposition and preserve the interests of the Oligarchs who keep him in power.

On the other hand, Russia has never seen someone with quite the following and notoriety of Navalny which makes this most recent attempt a very brave show of power. Despite this, the blatant use of a Russian nerve agent, on Russian soil, on Russia’s celebrity of a politician, proves the grip Putin has over internal affairs, or at least the grip he thought he had. Doubtlessly, Putin’s power move weakened internal Russian opposition and appeased the billionaires at the top.

Well, at least in the short term.

Having warded off the effects of the poison and arisen from a coma in Germany, Navalny set about catalysing the movement once again from abroad. He has since released his largest documentary yet: a manifest entitled “Putin’s palace. History of World’s Largest Bribe”.

It is no surprise that following his attempted assassination, Navalny has returned to his life mission of fighting the duplicity of the regime. But this time the effort has targeted the head of the snake. The documentary focusses heavily on exposing the obscene wealth of Putin himself, beginning with calls for protest demanding Navalny’s release.

On top of this work, Navalny also released a viral video featuring a phone call to Konstantin Kudryavtsev; one of the FSB agents who allegedly was part of the attempted murder. In a frankly unbelievable phone call, Navalny, masquerading as an FSB official, can be heard uncovering the story of how he was almost killed.

The point here is not the discovery of the state’s involvement behind the attack (that was almost never in question) but the shear mockery of the top Russian intelligence agency, as Navalny disseminates his own murder plot.

Yet Navalny’s shelf life as an influential figure in the Russian political sphere from exile was short, and to maintain his relevance it was clear a return to Russia was necessary. Putin at this point however reverted to his orthodox ways, opting to arrest Navalny as soon as he touched down on Russian soil.

A quick fix? Perhaps.

But Putin’s cowardice has been thrust into the open by this ballsy bellwether. 

It is plain to see from the violence against protesters, to the seizure of Alexei’s lawyer in broad daylight, that Navalny’s arrest has done nothing but invigorate Russian opposition. Despite Putin’s popularity ratings remaining ever high, his brash response paints a different picture; one of fear and concern for the stability of the state.

Putin evidently views that letting Navalny’s movement evolve, rocks the boat of Russian politics too much. Navalny’s lust for a transparent and accountable Russian government provides a credible alternative to the status quo.

To be clear, I do not believe that Navalny will ever be a free man, or leader of Russia, and there is a high chance that we never hear from him again. But that does not dampen the impact he has had in unsettling the house of cards Putin sits atop.

The question now becomes: are we at a tipping point of Russian politics where people begin to peek at the sunlit uplands of a democratic accountable government?

I do not think we are quite there yet, but Putin’s obvious fear of what Navalny has kickstarted and the strong international backlash begs the question: how many more Navalnys can Putin put up with? How many more storms can the shaky foundations of Russian government weather?

I believe we are at the precipice of change in Russia, but Putin still has time to haul it back from the edge. What we need is a passing of the torch from Navalny to the people of Russia. Emotional large-scale social movements are what it will take to topple those at the top. A bright future lies ahead for Russia but only if those at the top enjoy a long hard fall to the bottom.

William Worthy