Angela Merkel’s period in power will be remembered as heroic by generations to come. However, I’m not here to write an obituary - at least, not yet. The truth is, Merkel won’t be leaving her post as Chancellor of Germany for the foreseeable future. If she’s lucky, retirement will be her Christmas present, as has been promised by her replacement within the centre CDU party, Armin Laschet. However, we know all too well that politicians aren’t good at keeping to their promises – even German ones. So how did she, and more importantly, Germany, end up in this multi-coloured mess?

It seems that on the 26th September 2021, Germany couldn’t make its mind up about who it wanted to lead them. As a result, the newly elected Bundestag will be represented by 8 different parties and 735 MPs (a few more than the envisaged 598 when the constitution was set up). But the greatest problem with the election results is not that the German parliament put on weight, it’s the fact that no two parties have enough seats to form a clear coalition majority (see graph). That means that two smaller parties get to play king maker together – namely the FDP (Free Democrats) and the Grünen (Green party).

Perhaps this doesn’t sound too messy but the Green party leader Habeck wasn’t wrong when he said that his party’s policies were contrary in many areas to the conservative, right-leaning policies of the FDP. That is going to make reaching an agreement between the two kingmakers extremely difficult – even before the CDU (Christian democrats) or SPD (social democrats) get involved and Germany can be run by a multi-coloured government. Whether a Jamaica (Black, Yellow, Green) or Traffic Light (Red, Yellow, Green) coalition prevails is more uncertain than ever before.

Yet before looking towards Germany’s future, it’s worth considering why the election result ended up the way it did. Fundamentally, it was a failure for Merkel’s CDU party, who lost 8.8% of their voters from the last election, the majority of which moved over to the SPD. Currently, much of the blame for this is on the leader and chancellor candidate of the party, Armin Laschet. He lacks the reassurance and dominance which Merkel possesses but that only explains part of it. Indeed, a news report about devastating floods in Western Germany earlier this year showed him laughing in the background – enough of an inappropriate action to repel any voters willing to give him a chance.

However, the fault also lies more generally with the party; Merkel admits it herself that she has not done enough to combat climate change. Likewise, the immigration crisis, a widening wealth gap, nepotism and poor digitalisation have stained the rule of the CDU over the past 16 years. For the beating heart of Europe, such a track record needs to be renewed.

Despite the faults of the CDU, credit has to be given to the SPD, whose opinion ratings have soared over the campaign season. Once they realised that Olaf Scholz, their chancellor candidate, had earned the affection of the German people, they focussed their marketing campaign around him and what he could bring. You would struggle to have found a speech by Scholz where he didn’t mention the increase of the minimum wage to 12 euros. Such a policy was simple, clear but enticing for the humble workers the SPD was set up to represent.

At first glance, it appears to be a successful election campaign for the Greens who have substantially upped their voting share from 8.9% in 2017 to 14.8% this year. Yet this has disappointed many Green hopefuls. Polls and surveys from April and May this year had put the Green party as a potential election winner but a series of plagiarism scandals surrounding their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock disturbed the ruling credibility of the party.

So, what does this mean for Germany next?

Fundamentally, it looks as if not a lot could change for the country. Due to the failing confidence in the CDU, it would be wiser for the FDP to allow the formation of a Traffic Light coalition with the Grünen and the SPD. However, in what format this coalition might take place is more uncertain. The FDP are adamant to take control of the Finance Ministry, which will naturally be a barrier to the SPD’s social policies. This means that the SPD and Grünen would be forced to concede an important ministry such as the interior ministry to the FDP which would result in a much tougher approach to immigration than the other two parties had hoped.

Whilst one would expect the Grünen to take charge of the Environmental Protection Ministry, their impact will be limited by the ‘debt break’ which the SPD and FDP want to introduce from 2023. Without the capacity to spend more than they earn, the chance for the government to invest in expensive green infrastructure and cushion the shock for dirty industries is vastly reduced. In the long term, that could greatly damage the credibility of the Green party to effectively lead the fight against climate change.

The current SPD foreign minister Heiko Maas is likely to retain his post in the foreign ministry. For Europe, that could spell out greater collaboration and connectivity as the SPD and Grünen haven’t inherited the antiquated outlook of the CDU. However, this certainly won’t be to the extent which France wishes – the pro-German market FDP will make sure of it. Likewise, Olaf Scholz’s cool, calm and collected manner of doing business would allow him to fill the former seat of Merkel at the European Council well. So the good news is that the EU as an institution is not threatened by the German elections. Nevertheless, the principles of social justice are ingrained within the SPD and Grünen, so Poland and Hungary may need to be a little more wary.  

On a world stage it is hard not to see Germany’s influence climb. They have already been leading the way in the fight against climate change and their export surplus has made their market the most attractive in Europe. With Scholz at the helm, Germany will continue to strive for multilateralism but they will undoubtedly hold their own ground between America and China too. It’s about time that Europe became a world player again and the contrasting policies of the SPD, Grünen and FDP may well achieve that, however conflicting they seem at the moment.

Without a doubt, the incoming coalition negotiations will demand concessions and many hours of discussion. But in the midst of a global health crisis, one has to remain optimistic about the future governance of Germany. Of course, getting two parties to agree is hard but that doesn’t mean getting three to agree is impossible. United by their desire for a stronger, fairer and greener Germany, there has to be some common ground. Merkel was able to open her arms to over a million immigrants in 2015 so there’s hope that the FDP can open their arms to the Greens and Social Democrats too.

Over the next four years, Germany is plunging into the unknown and for a country so adept with rules, order and conservatism inherited from the great days of Prussia, this year’s elections have shown a new face to the Germans; one that is more progressive, more green and yet more defiant than ever before. For the sake of liberal-socialism, I hope that this face can endure.

Elliot Wood